It's not putting it too strongly to say we are in danger of sleepwalking into a major war - while holding a live grenade - writes MARK ALMOND

Overnight connected Monday, a 100,000-ton leviathan the tallness of a 24-­storey gathering weighed anchor astatine Naval Station Norfolk successful the US authorities of Virginia and acceptable sail for the eastbound Mediterranean.

With a unit of 6,250, a squadron of 90 craft and 2 escorting destroyers, the USS Harry S. Truman is the precise incarnation of American subject might.

If ever determination were a motion that the US is taking the menace of an escalating ­conflict successful the Middle East seriously, this was it.

The vessel is sailing to ­Washington’s top state successful the region, Israel, which is locked successful a struggle that has dispersed from the dusty plains of Gaza to the hillscapes of confederate Lebanon.

Goaded into enactment by a pitiless bombardment of rockets and missiles from Hezbollah crossed its bluish border, the Israelis person responded with a deadly operation of ruthless guile and brute force.

First came the quality past week that thousands of ­booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies utilized by ­Hezbollah fighters had been blown up arsenic portion of an Israeli quality operation, sidesplitting astatine slightest 50 and wounding much than 3,000.

Then came a unspeakable question of aerial strikes that took retired thousands of Hezbollah’s rockets and killed much than 500 ­people, according to the Lebanese wellness ministry, making Monday the ­deadliest time of the struggle since it was sparked by Hamas’s appalling ­terrorist onslaught connected October 7 past year.

So determination is nary uncertainty that Israel’s premier curate ­Benjamin Netanyahu is – for present astatine slightest – winning the conflict against the militant Islamists who would similar to spot his state wiped disconnected the look of the earth.

But the information is that the Middle East is simply a tinderbox that could erupt into flames astatine immoderate infinitesimal and – if lipid supplies are to beryllium ­interrupted by the hostilities – resistance the West into a full-scale war.

The horrifying ­consequences could widen to coercion connected the streets of Britain and attacks connected ­military bases abroad, and mightiness adjacent extremity the equilibrium successful the forthcoming US ­presidential election.

The archetypal constituent to marque is that it’s unclear to what grade the airborne limb of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has really destroyed Hezbollah’s capableness to retaliate.

Many of the panic group’s biggest missiles, stationed further to the northbound successful ­Lebanon, whitethorn good stay intact. This raises the ­spectre of Hezbollah responding successful benignant with a blitzkrieg of its own.

If specified an onslaught overwhelmed Israel’s fabled Iron Dome defence strategy and hit, say, the Dimona atomic powerfulness works successful the eastbound of the country, oregon a residential operation artifact successful the bluish metropolis of Haifa, ­Netanyahu mightiness consciousness helium had small enactment but to salve ­popular civilian fury implicit specified a wide casualty lawsuit by mounting a onshore penetration of Lebanon.

Then, each bets would beryllium off.

Given that the IDF has got bogged down successful its warfare against Hamas successful Gaza –around 100 hostages stay successful captivity and Hamas person Yahya Sinwar is inactive astatine ample – the archetypal question to beryllium asked is: does Israel person the manpower to propulsion disconnected specified an operation?

After all, Hezbollah is simply a acold much ferocious hostile that the scrappier Hamas, better-armed and better-trained.

Thousands of its soldiers are battle-scarred veterans of the combat to prevention Syria’s beleaguered President Assad successful 2013.

Worst still, successful the hilly ­terrain of confederate Lebanon, Israeli crushed troops volition beryllium acold much susceptible than combatant pilots successful the sky. ­Jerusalem mightiness similar to deliberation that it has decapitated Hezbollah by assassinating galore of its astir elder ­commanders.

But 18-year-olds equipped with Kalashnikovs, mobile rocket-launchers and the benignant of roadside IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) that proved truthful effectual against British patrols successful Afghanistan could beryllium to beryllium formidable foes.

It’s worthy remembering that Israel’s erstwhile attempts to suppress its ­enemies successful Lebanon utilizing tanks and soldiers – notably successful 1982 and 2006 – some ended successful dense decease tolls and, ultimately, retreat.

If Hezbollah doesn’t ace this time, too, past the IDF could find itself warring a warfare without extremity successful Lebanon, arsenic good arsenic Gaza. And Hezbollah is improbable to beryllium abbreviated of allies.

Syria’s Bashar al-Assad mightiness consciousness it’s clip to repay the radical for its assistance successful 2013, not slightest due to the fact that helium mightiness fishy that helium would beryllium adjacent connected Israel’s hitlist if helium doesn’t assistance neuter the IDF successful Lebanon.

Iran’s proxies successful Yemen (the Houthis) and Iraq (Shi’ite militias) would besides beryllium nether terrible unit to equine equipped responses.

Iran itself could adjacent get progressive directly. If the mullahs successful Tehran were seen to vessel specified a bare menace to Iran’s powerfulness and influence, they could find themselves facing ­challenges to their rule.

An equipped effect whitethorn good beryllium the lone mode to ­maintain the prestige of their theocracy and rally fashionable support. And they are apt to beryllium egged connected by their superpower sweetener daddies.

Russian president Vladimir Putin, a loyal state and large weapons supplier, volition spot immoderate specified struggle arsenic a bully mode to distract the West from his warfare of attrition successful Ukraine.

China, too, volition beryllium ­gimlet-eyed for immoderate ­opportunities to grow its power fractional a satellite away.

It’s not putting it excessively powerfully to accidental we are successful ­danger of sleepwalking into a large warfare – and doing truthful portion holding a unrecorded grenade.

Few radical are adjacent talking astir possibly the astir ­serious imaginable flashpoint.

A 3rd of the world’s ­liquefied earthy state and astir 25 per cent of its lipid passes done the Strait of Hormuz, the agelong of h2o betwixt Iran and Saudi ­Arabia that leads from the Persian Gulf to planetary waterways.

If Tehran were to blockade this captious choke point, the terms of lipid would soar and a planetary economical slump would not beryllium acold behind.

In specified a context, Washington and, yes, London would beryllium nether large unit to get progressive militarily.

Throw successful the wide menace to Cyprus, conscionable 80 miles disconnected the seashore of Lebanon, which houses a cardinal British aerial and naval basal and has attracted galore British retirees (not to notation holidaymakers), and the hazard of superior panic attacks is obvious.

It doesn’t assistance that things are coming to a caput successful a US predetermination year.

Is President Biden’s ­policy-making affected by the information that younger Democratic Party voters – galore of them virulently opposed to Israel’s warfare successful Gaza – whitethorn good ballot with their feet if helium is seen to beryllium excessively supportive of Jerusalem?

And is Netanyahu ­emboldened by the imaginable of Donald Trump, who has offered Israel his ­unconditional backing astatine each stage, making a instrumentality to the White House?

Of 1 happening we tin beryllium sure: erstwhile the USS Harry S. Truman drops anchor successful the Mediterranean this ­weekend, it won’t person arrived a infinitesimal excessively soon.

Mark Almond is manager of the Crisis Research Institute, Oxford