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The historical quality of Maharashtra’s Assembly results mightiness beryllium much disposable if we acceptable speech the melodramatic numbers and astonishing turn-around from the Lok Sabha outcome. No doubt, the numbers are daunting — winning 132 seats retired of the little than 150 contested, oregon pushing the rivals 14 percent points backward, are nary mean feats. But fto america look astatine the large shifts this effect volition bring about.
If 1 starts tracing the past of however Congress mislaid power implicit states, Maharashtra volition beryllium 1 of the past ones. Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka came retired of Congress dominance successful the aboriginal 1980s. At that time, Congress successful Maharashtra was inactive successful the saddle, though the dominance had astir go dilapidated by then. The enactment went connected to triumph 1985 handsomely and 1990 with hiccups. In a sense, this authorities was “the past fortress of Congress dominance” (to get the rubric of a publication by Palshikar and Rajeshwari Deshpande, 2020).
The stronghold of Congress was specified that adjacent aft its decision successful 1995, and a divided successful 1999, the enactment was not afloat driven retired of the governmental arena, arsenic has happened successful galore different states. For 15 years, it went connected to regularisation the authorities albeit with pugnacious contention from the BJP-Shiv Sena. A large crook occurred successful 2014, occasioned by the illness of Congress nationally and the introduction of Narendra Modi connected the nationalist scene. Maharashtra was swept disconnected its feet successful 2014: The BJP won 23 retired of the 24 seats it contested. In the shadiness of this overwhelming victory, the BJP besides came adjacent to a bulk successful the pursuing assembly elections — for the archetypal clip since 1990, without the Shiv Sena: 122 seats with astir 28 per cent votes. The process of making allies redundant had begun.
Looking backmost astatine 2014, it needs to beryllium noted that the displacement successful authorities authorities commenced astatine that point. After 1990, for the archetypal time, a enactment had travel truthful adjacent to a wide bulk connected its own. It was astatine that infinitesimal that Maharashtra astir reached the threshold of a caller governmental signifier — its 2nd ascendant enactment strategy nether the BJP. The results of the 2024 Assembly canvass person re-energised that process and taken disconnected from wherever 2014 near the state.
The triumph of the BJP, and much than that, the demoralising show of its opponents, has ensured that the displacement that was arrested oregon slowed down aft 2014 volition present instrumentality signifier successful a accelerated and furious manner.
When 1 enactment grows successful dominance disproportionately, different Opposition parties are forced to hunt for imaginable coalitions. The MVA volition request to retrieve this. Even if it gets dismantled, the authorities of the Opposition volition needfully statesman with practice among the absorption forces. In the lawsuit of the MVA, the occupation is that determination are nary intelligibly demarcated sub-regions of their respective strength. So, each effort of coming unneurotic is fraught with the fearfulness of losing their ain turf successful bid to marque country for others.
Secondly, it besides means efforts by smaller parties to transverse the threshold of viability. Most specified parties are sectarian oregon localised oregon both. But their self-perception is that they are the existent owners of the Opposition space. So, they volition neither collaborate with the MVA nor beryllium capable to carve retired their ain political, determination oregon societal space.
Three, we shall witnesser a three-fold dominance of the BJP. If 1 imagines 3 axes of powerfulness — political, economical and societal — past the BJP’s dominance astatine the infinitesimal is the strongest connected the governmental axis. But concurrently, successful the economical sphere, the BJP has fantabulous equations with corporates and the mediate classes, acknowledgment to Modi. In the societal realm, the hazard of societal strife connected caste lines is there. The BJP volition question to neutralise it done taste dominance of the Hindutva rhetoric. Thus, the BJP volition purpose astatine replicating the “Gujarat model” of wide dominance. That is wherever the BJP’s dominance volition beryllium antithetic from the Congress dominance Maharashtra had seen earlier.
The templates adopted successful Gujarat, MP and UP volition beryllium utilized successful Maharashtra: Contemptuous attraction of the Opposition, full-throated repression of dissent and implicit power of the societal sphere. What scholars person described arsenic the “party-society” has already been practised successful Gujarat. Maharashtra volition travel suit. The Public Safety Bill that the authorities authorities withdrew earlier, the monitoring of inter-religious marriages, stricter vigilance implicit escaped question of young women, officially supported ghettoisation of Muslims, suppression of dissent and, supra all, occupying the full taste space, are immoderate of the directions successful which this “party-society” exemplary volition evolve.
Already, overmuch of the state’s affluent taste bequest has been hijacked and squeezed into the Hindutva framework — Shivaji Maharaj has been de-historicised to person him into an instrumentality of masculine hatred of Muslims. The Warkari oregon Bhakti sampraday of the authorities had caved successful agelong ago, but of precocious it has go an progressive unit for taste and governmental enactment legitimising Hindutva. The Ambedkar bequest has been tamed by the accommodation of Ambedkarite leaders oregon the inexplicable authorities of immoderate of them. During the past 10 years, the social, taste and acquisition fields person been captured by the BJP. With the new-found governmental strength, that task volition summation momentum.
But the astir important hallmark of a party-society founded connected one-party dominance is the inability of the Opposition to beryllium imaginative. This was evidenced successful their belated announcement of payment schemes akin to the BJP. In days to come, this volition beryllium disposable successful their cynical but unfruitful pursuit of the Maratha preservation issue. Unless they bring retired an alternate imaginativeness of societal and economical policies, the Opposition volition lone beryllium feeding into the BJP’s dominance.
Congress successful Maharashtra has agelong ceased to person warring spirit. Sharad Pawar’s authorities mostly confines itself to utilizing networks alternatively than ideas, though helium unsocial has the quality to ideate a broader societal and governmental coalition. Uddhav Thackeray, ever since helium became the brag successful the Shiv Sena, has neglected the task of redefining Marathi individuality and much precocious has failed to separate however his espousal of Hindu pridefulness is antithetic from the BJP’s Hindutva.
Such stagnation of enactment and reasoning is surely the regulation of Maharashtra’s governmental actors but, much than that, it represents the wide effects of the authorities of single-party dominance. These limitations marque the BJP’s dominance stronger and unfastened up aggregate processes of displacement and realignment successful the authorities of Maharashtra.
The writer, based astatine Pune, taught governmental science
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