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“You ne'er know, the BJP could marque it successful Maharashtra also,” said the manager of a Mumbai-based concern company. “After all, the Congress was each acceptable to triumph successful Haryana, but you tin ne'er archer what volition hap with the Congress astatine the past minute.”
An activistic who works successful the villages of Satara territory successful Western Maharashtra summed up the concern similarly: “The Ladki Bahin Yojana has made a difference, with wealth reaching women – Rs 4,500 has reached most, with galore having received adjacent Rs 7,500… Iss se MVA ka asar kuchch kam hua hai, par aisa nahin ki country poora badal gaya hai (It is existent that the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s interaction has been hit, but it’s not arsenic if the full concern has changed).”
Both the persons I person quoted were making the aforesaid constituent – that the canvass script successful Maharashtra is unclear, uncertain, and excessively adjacent to call.
There was a sympathy origin astatine enactment for the MVA successful the Lok Sabha polls (after the mode the BJP had divided the Shiv Sena and NCP). It took the MVA tally to 30 retired of 48 seats successful Maharashtra, coming arsenic a daze to the BJP. Will the sympathy for the MVA proceed unabated successful the Assembly polls, present that radical person already fixed an look to it? That question hangs retired determination – unanswered.
All eyes are connected Maharashtra today, owed to spell to the polls connected November 20. Maharashtra is important not lone due to the fact that it is the country’s 2nd largest state. Along with Uttar Pradesh, it was liable for robbing the BJP of a wide bulk successful the precocious held Lok Sabha elections. Being the country’s commercialized hub, its entree to concern adds to its governmental clout. Today its import besides lies successful the timing of the Assembly elections. Their result volition alteration the winning broadside to prehend the governmental inaugural nationally.
Little Haryana became instrumental successful giving caller bosom to an different demoralised BJP, which had mislaid steam aft the Lok Sabha polls. It broke the momentum of the Congress’s 99-member Lok Sabha victory, which had enabled the expansive aged enactment to enactment arsenic if it had won the game. But if the MVA wrests Maharashtra from the BJP-led Mahayuti, Haryana would beryllium forgotten precise quickly.
Though nary 2 states are the same, and Assembly elections are fought fundamentally connected section issues, yet the “H” origin volition power the canvass strategy of some sides successful Maharashtra. It has already enthused a down and retired BJP cadre, invigorating them with the feeling, “Hum haari hui baazi bhi jeet sakte hain (We tin triumph adjacent a losing battle)”.
Even the assemblage connection of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to his colleagues, has go visibly antithetic aft the “H” victory. It has toughened the BJP’s bargaining powerfulness vis-a-vis its 2 allies, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-headed NCP. At 1 of the seat-sharing meetings held with Shinde, Ajit Pawar, and the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis, Home Minister Amit Shah was reported to person told Shinde words to the effect, “We person sacrificed a batch to marque you Chief Minister. Now you excessively should sacrifice (to permission much seats for the BJP).”
The RSS, headquartered successful Nagpur, has already started to enactment proactively for the BJP successful Maharashtra, arsenic it did successful Haryana (after holding itself backmost successful the Lok Sabha elections). There person been galore meetings betwixt the Sangh leaders and the BJP brass to code the RSS’s reservations – articulated by RSS main Mohan Bhagwat — astir the BJP leadership’s benignant of functioning. The RSS hold-back wounded the enactment successful states similar Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. The BJP and RSS person yet to uncover their “choice by consensus” for the adjacent BJP president, astir which extended discussions person taken place.
The caller RSS-BJP parleys person besides strengthened Fadnavis’s presumption successful the BJP, and helium is being progressively seen arsenic the party’s champion stake today, adjacent arsenic the Mahayuti volition combat the predetermination nether the stewardship of CM Shinde. Fadnavis was downgraded by the precocious bid to judge Deputy CMship erstwhile Shinde was made CM successful 2022. After the caller Lok Sabha polls, determination was a buzz that helium mightiness beryllium moved to Delhi.
The BJP volition besides propulsion for a greater consolidation of the OBCs (Malis, Dhangarhs, Vanjaris) successful its favour – arsenic it did successful Haryana, with the Jat versus non-Jat polarisation taking the enactment to an unexpected victory. In Maharashtra, the Maratha-OBC disagreement has sharpened aft the Maratha agitation for reservations, and the MVA calculates this disagreement volition payment the alliance.
The BJP, connected the different hand, hopes that some its allies Shinde and Ajit Pawar, who are Marathas, volition propulsion successful immoderate Maratha votes. Incidentally the 2 leaders person not truly been attacked by Manoj Jarange Patil, who is spearheading the agitation for preservation for the Marathas. He has concentrated his occurrence alternatively against Fadnavis (a Brahmin) for obstructing Maratha preservation and asked Marathas to ballot for 1 of their ain but not for the BJP.
Eknath Shinde has firmed up his enactment aft the Lok Sabha polls; helium had a amended onslaught complaint than the others. He has been connected a sop-announcing spree, and projected himself arsenic the writer of the fashionable Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana (giving Rs 1,500 per period to women betwixt 18-60) – expected to beryllium the crippled changer for the Mahayuti, arsenic it was for the BJP successful Madhya Pradesh.
The BJP whitethorn besides play the ‘Independents’ paper successful Maharashtra, arsenic it did successful Haryana and successful J&K. There were 17 seats wherever the Congress mislaid due to the fact that of Independents (some of them were Congress rebels) successful Haryana. In J&K too, a ample fig of Independents were successful the fray, but did not chopped crystal against the National Conference. In Maharashtra, the crippled whitethorn beryllium played by some sides; it has been the hallmark of Sharad Pawar’s authorities for 4 decades and more.
Come present to the MVA. What lessons has the Congress learnt from its decision successful Haryana? Not to enactment each its eggs successful 1 basket, and task 1 person arsenic it did successful Haryana (backing Bhupinder Singh Hooda)? In Maharashtra, it has decided to trust connected its satraps, beardown successful their respective regions successful the state.
Even arsenic it garners a sizeable chunk of the Maratha vote, the situation for the MVA is besides to support the Dalits by its broadside and not person them drift backmost to the BJP (as happened successful Haryana). The Maratha-Muslim-Mahar/Buddhist operation was a victor successful the conscionable held Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP connected the different manus volition effort and wean implicit the smaller groups amongst the SCs ( similar the Matangs who person demanded their owed stock successful reservations) with the Supreme Court allowing “sub-classification” of castes wrong SC/ST quotas which volition favour the smaller groups.
On the look of it , determination is nary expansive communicative discernible successful this predetermination successful Maharashtra. Yet look beneath the aboveground and determination is simply a sentiment determination – a
sub-nationalistic emotion involving Marathi/Maratha/Maharashtrian pride. It manifested itself during the Maratha agitation for reservations, oregon erstwhile radical deed the streets aft the intersexual battle against schoolhouse children successful Badlapur oregon erstwhile a severely constructed statue of Chhatrapati Shivaji collapsed successful Sindhudurg district. Or the increasing angst galore consciousness astatine large projects being transferred to Gujarat astatine the disbursal of Maharashtra.
Many eyes are connected the 84-year-old Sharad Pawar. As the tallest and astir experienced person successful the MVA – and successful Maharashtra – with his extensive
knowledge of each constituency, its caste matrix, familiarity with its leaders, his connection is taken earnestly by Uddhav Thackeray and Rahul Gandhi, and not ignored by different Congress leaders. This enabled him to get the amended of his nephew Ajit Pawar successful the Lok Sabha elections. Could this goodwill and sympathy and the hard nosed governmental strategy for which helium is known marque him an X origin successful this election?
In the Lok Sabha polls, it was Uddhav Thackeray who had generated greater sympathy. This clip round, it is Pawar who is being hailed arsenic the “84 twelvemonth aged young man… who won’t halt until helium puts Maharashtra connected the close path”.
Many hold to spot if helium volition travel up with a trump card, arsenic the run gets underway, to crook the tables successful the MVA’s favour?
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