New Brunswick election: Poll shows tight race between Liberals and incumbent Tories

As the New Brunswick predetermination run entered its archetypal afloat week, a caller canvass indicated the Liberals were starring the incumbent Tories by a flimsy borderline successful presumption of voting intentions.

But erstwhile the borderline of mistake is factored in, the parties appeared to beryllium successful a precise choky race.

The results from the Mainstreet Research poll, released arsenic the run began Thursday, were drawn from an automated telephone survey of 609 adults betwixt Sept. 15 and Sept. 17.

The canvass suggests the Liberals — led by Susan Holt — had enactment from 35 per cent of those surveyed, conscionable up of the Tories astatine 32 per cent. The Green Party had 10 per cent and the People’s Alliance enactment was a distant 4th astatine 3 per cent.

All different parties, including the NDP, were astatine 2 per cent, and undecided voters made up 18 per cent of the results.

The poll, commissioned by Mainstreet, has a borderline of mistake of positive oregon minus 4 percent points with a 95 per cent assurance level.

Even erstwhile undecided voters were removed from the sample, the Liberals and Tories were lone a 2 points apart, and enactment for the Greens jumped to lone 13 per cent.

As for the enactment leaders, erstwhile respondents were asked if they had a favourable oregon unfavourable presumption of Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs, 51 per cent said they held a precise oregon somewhat unfavourable view. Another 11 per cent said they didn’t know, with the remainder (37 per cent) saying their sentiment of Higgs was precise oregon somewhat favourable.

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In general, respondents had a much affirmative presumption of Holt, with 46 per cent saying their presumption was precise oregon somewhat favourable, and different 31 per cent saying their sentiment of her was precise oregon somewhat unfavourable. Twenty-three per cent said they didn’t know.

Still, the Conservatives received immoderate affirmative quality erstwhile respondents were asked whether they supported oregon were opposed to the Tory government’s determination past twelvemonth to amend its schoolhouse argumentation for intersexual predisposition and sex identity, besides known arsenic Policy 713.

The caller argumentation requires teachers to get parental consent earlier they tin usage the preferred pronouns of students nether 16 years old.

In all, 50 per cent of those surveyed said their supported the alteration portion 35 per cent were opposed, and the remainder did not person an opinion.

This study by The Canadian Press was archetypal published Sept. 23, 2024.