New Kazakhstan, old methods: Civil society laments stalled political reforms

Widespread hopes for a much pluralistic and antiauthoritarian Kazakhstan are fading immoderate 30 months aft President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev unveiled his programme for dismantling the authoritarian strategy associated with his predecessor and mentor, Nursultan Nazarbayev.

The “New Kazakhstan” programme was greeted enthusiastically by governmental analysts and civilian nine members erstwhile it was announced successful March 2022 to a state inactive reeling from convulsive nationwide protests 2 months earlier.

However, immoderate of those aforesaid analysts and experts are present expressing disillusionment, saying New Kazakhstan has mostly remained connected insubstantial portion Nazarbayev and his relatives proceed to wield influence.

Nazarbayev ruled implicit Kazakhstan for 3 decades aft the illness of the Soviet Union, turning the state into a vibrant determination system portion skillfully balancing relations with Russia, China and the West.

As his relatives and adjacent concern associates prospered, Nazarbayev crushed governmental absorption and promoted a cult of personality.

In 2010, the Kazakh Parliament declared him “Leader of the Nation,” a rubric that came with immunity from prosecution and a close to enactment successful powerfulness indefinitely. In 2019, Kazakh authorities changed the sanction of the superior metropolis from Astana to Nur-Sultan successful his honor.

In March 2019, Nazarbayev stepped down from the presidency and transferred powerfulness to his hand-picked successor, Tokayev, past serving arsenic talker of the Parliament. But helium ensured that helium would proceed to clasp existent powerfulness arsenic the caput of the Security Council, a governmental assemblage that oversaw Tokayev’s Cabinet.

Nazarbayev’s governmental fortunes changed abruptly successful January 2022 when, amid convulsive thoroughfare protests caused by a substance terms increase, Tokayev stripped him of his relation arsenic caput of the Security Council and arrested his loyalists, including Karim Massimov, the caput of the National Security Committee, connected treason charges.

Nazarbayev’s relatives, meanwhile, were forced to relinquish high-ranking authorities positions.

The January 2022 protests “untied Tokayev’s hands,” said a Kazakhstani researcher who spoke to VOA connected information of anonymity for fearfulness of authoritative retribution.

“Previously, helium had to get Nazarbayev’s support for each large governmental decisions, which created a dual powerfulness concern successful the country. This [arrangement] proved utile successful the opening but led to bloodshed successful the end.”

In consequent weeks and months, Tokayev presided implicit further efforts to weaken Nazarbayev, including a restoration of the capital’s sanction arsenic Astana and a ruling by the Constitutional Court that annulled the instrumentality protecting Nazarbayev and his household from prosecution.

Kairat Satybaldy, Nazarbayev’s nephew, who had a estimation arsenic an oligarch, was sentenced to six years successful situation connected embezzlement charges successful September 2022. In January of this year, prosecutors charged different nephew, erstwhile lawman caput of the National Security Committee Samat Abish, with maltreatment of office.

According to media reports, betwixt 2022 and 2024, Kazakh investigators recouped $1.7 billion successful what prosecutors said were “illegally appropriated assets” from Nazarbayev’s relatives and concern associates.

Supporters of Tokayev stay enthusiastic astir the reforms.

Mikhail Kazantsev, a subordinate of the Parliament’s little chamber, the Mazhilis, proclaimed successful March of 2024 that "a caller exemplary has begun.”

“We had law reform, the Parliament changed, the authorities became much dynamic, the president’s rhetoric has changed, and changes deepened,” helium told Kazakh media.

Kazantsev added that Kazakh citizens had much state and the authorities had go much accountable.

But different experts and analysts present accidental that the governmental reforms and the dismantling of Nazarbayev’s bequest person stalled. In a March interview with Kazakh media, Dosym Satpayev, an Almaty-based governmental analyst, described Tokayev arsenic “a mini-Nazarbayev.”

“Behind the facade of governmental advertisements, the essence of the strategy has not changed,” Satpayev said.

“Tokayev has not abolished the oligarchic system. People who situation him are not reformers, but those who made their careers nether Nazarbayev. We are seeing the reincarnation of the Nazarbayev strategy nether caller slogans.”

In a September analysis published by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Kazakhstani analysts Aliya Tlegenova and Serik Beissembayev wrote that New Kazakhstan “increasingly looks similar [the] aged one."

“Tokayev has successfully consolidated powerfulness portion the nine fell into apathy caused by fearfulness and disappointment,” they said.

In March, Abish was released from situation aft receiving an eight-year suspended sentence. Then, successful August, Kazakhstan’s Supreme Court refused to see a corruption case against Nazarbayev, declaring that helium inactive has immunity nether Kazakh law.

Some experts spot governmental expediency down Tokayev’s deficiency of enthusiasm for a continued crackdown connected Nazarbayev and his family.

The Kazakhstani researcher who spoke connected information of anonymity said Nazarbayev “has fostered an representation of himself arsenic the founding begetter of the nation. How tin they [the ruling establishment] spell aft the founding father?”

The researcher added that Tokayev “does not privation to beryllium seen arsenic an ungrateful idiosyncratic who turned against his mentor.”

In a July 2023 interrogation with Kazakh media, Joanna Lillis, a writer based successful Kazakhstan, said Tokayev “is inactive constrained successful his actions. There is simply a likelihood of absorption from Nazarbayev and his people, adjacent if they person been weakened.”

“Moreover, the Kazakh nationalist has been told for 3 decades that Nazarbayev is simply a large person who built a large country,” she said. “If this story is busted, what volition beryllium near from 3 decades of independence? The occupation is that this whitethorn make an ideological vacuum.”