US election 2024: Could Jill Stein determine whether Trump or Harris wins?

In an advertisement for the Democrats successful the United States successful October, an representation of left-wing environmentalist person Jill Stein morphs into the look of Republican campaigner and erstwhile President Donald Trump wrong the blink of an eye.

“A ballot for Stein is truly a ballot for Trump,” a cautionary voiceover successful the advertisement, titled “Crucial”, says. The video segues into Trump astatine a Pennsylvania rally this year, saying: “Jill Stein? I similar her precise much. You cognize why? She takes 100 percent from them.”

On October 28, the Democratic National Committee announced that it would walk astir $500,000 successful a last-minute effort to transportation voters successful plaything states against voting for third-party candidates specified arsenic Stein, the Green Party’s nominee for the statesmanlike election, and the unaffiliated candidate, Cornel West.

Both Trump and the Democrats person implied that Stein could dent the ballot for Democratic campaigner and Vice President Kamala Harris, paving the mode for a Trump win.

But what bash the polls say? How overmuch interaction could Stein, a third-party candidate, person connected the outcome?

Who is Jill Stein and what are her cardinal positions?

Stein, 74, is the US Green Party nominee for the statesmanlike election. She announced her candidacy via a video connection connected X connected November 9, 2023. She antecedently ran for the 2012 and 2016 elections.

Born successful Chicago and raised successful Illinois, Stein graduated from Harvard College successful 1973 and from Harvard Medical School successful 1979. Her run website describes her arsenic a practising physician.

The Green Party is simply a left-wing federation of Green authorities parties successful the US, advocating for environmentalism and societal justice.

Her positions connected immoderate of the cardinal issues successful this predetermination are:

Israel’s warfare connected Gaza

Stein has called for an immediate ceasefire successful Gaza, an extremity to the blockade of the Palestinian enclave, the proviso of humanitarian assistance and the merchandise of Palestinian prisoners successful Israeli jails alongside Israeli captives being held successful Gaza. According to her run website, she wants to “stop US enactment and arms income to quality rights abusers”. She wants to “end the longstanding US signifier of vetoing UN Security Council resolutions to clasp Israel accountable to planetary law”. She besides says she wants to disband NATO and “replace it with a modern, inclusive information model that respects the information interests of each nations and people”.

Russia-Ukraine war

The Green Party wants to “stop fuelling” the Russia-Ukraine war and enactment connected negotiating a peaceful extremity to it.

Climate change

Stein’s enactment wants to beforehand the Green New Deal connection to modulation to cleanable vigor and execute zero emissions. The enactment says it takes an “eco-socialist approach” towards the environment, centring and compensating Black people, Indigenous radical and the poor. Stein wants to state a clime exigency and guarantee the merchandise of $650bn annually to boost renewable vigor and cleanable transport.

The economy 

A Stein medication would question to make an system that “works for moving people, not conscionable the affluent and powerful”. Stein wants to present an economical measure of rights, abolishing backstage schools and guaranteeing escaped childcare and a lifelong escaped nationalist acquisition for each from preschool to postgraduate school. Additionally, she wants to cancel pupil indebtedness for 43 cardinal radical successful the US. She besides wants to trim taxes connected incomes beneath the existent median income of $75,000 per household, and summation taxes connected “the ultra-wealthy and elephantine corporations”.

How is Stein faring successful the polls?

Overall, Stein was polling astatine astir 1 percent nationally, according to The New York Times polling released successful the archetypal week of October.

However, discontent is brewing among galore Arab-American and Muslim voters towards some the starring candidates – Harris and Trump – due to the fact that of their unwavering enactment for Israel successful its warfare successful Gaza.

The Council connected American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), a US-based Muslim civilian rights and advocacy organisation, revealed connected Friday that 42.3 percent of Muslim voters similar Stein compared with 41 percent of Muslim voters who similar Harris.

The canvass of 1,449 verified Muslim American voters was conducted betwixt October 1 and 31. It showed conscionable 9.8 percent of Muslim voters were successful enactment of Trump.

On February 27 this year, CAIR estimated that determination were astir 2.5 cardinal registered Muslim American voters. That is astir 1.6 percent of immoderate 160 cardinal registered voters successful the US.

How is Stein polling successful the plaything states?

Between October 30 and 31, Brazil-based analytics and information quality website AtlasIntel polled samples of voters successful the 7 swing states.

• Arizona: 1.1 percent of voters preferred Stein; 50.8 percent preferred Trump; and 45.9 Harris
• Georgia: 2 percent for Stein; 48.8 percent for Trump; and 47.2 percent for Harris
• Michigan: 1.7 percent for Stein; 49.2 percent for Trump; and 48.3 percent for Harris
• Nevada: 1.2 percent of voters chose “Others”; 50.5 percent chose Trump; and 46.9 percent chose Harris; Stein did not fig connected the ballot
• North Carolina: 0.7 percent for Stein; 50.7 percent for Trump; and 46.7 percent for Harris
• Pennsylvania: 1 percent for Stein; 48.5 percent for Trump; and 47.4 percent for Harris
• Wisconsin: 0.8 percent for Stein; 48.5 percent for Trump; and 48.2 percent for Harris

Could Stein plaything this election?

As the margins betwixt Harris and Trump are truthful slim, immoderate experts judge that votes for Stein could so plaything the election.

“The ballot close present is truthful adjacent that a tiny magnitude of tipping successful 1 absorption oregon different could plaything it,” Bernard Tamas, prof of governmental subject astatine Valdosta State University, told The Guardian newspaper.

The Guardian besides quoted Nura Sediqe, an adjunct prof successful American authorities astatine Michigan State University, who said: “Muslims are split. They’re not each voting 3rd party, but let’s ideate a 3rd are: past you’ve got up to 50,000 votes that had traditionally gone to the Democrats moving away. So if the borderline is arsenic slim arsenic it was past time, it whitethorn impact the Democratic party.”

On Friday, the European Green family, including Green parties each implicit Europe, released a associated connection calling connected Stein to retreat from the contention and endorse Harris. “We are wide that Kamala Harris is the lone campaigner who tin artifact Donald Trump and his anti-democratic, authoritarian policies from the White House,” the connection read.

However, Kyle Kopko, an adjunct prof of governmental subject astatine Elizabethtown College successful Pennsylvania told Al Jazeera that portion Stein can, successful theory, plaything the election, successful practise it depends connected however adjacent the predetermination results are.

It volition person to beryllium an “extraordinarily adjacent election” for her to plaything the vote, Kopko said.

Have votes for Stein swung elections before?

Stein contested the 2016 predetermination and won 132,000 votes crossed battleground states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Together, the 3 states are worthy 44 Electoral votes.

In these 3 states, Democrat Hilary Clinton mislaid by a combined 77,000 votes. Despite winning the fashionable vote, therefore, Clinton mislaid the Electoral College ballot to Trump, who won 304 votes compared with Clinton’s 227.

The Republican person beat Clinton successful Michigan with a 0.3 percent constituent borderline of victory, successful Pennsylvania with a 0.7 constituent borderline of triumph and successful Wisconsin with a 0.7 constituent margin. These constrictive victories earned him 44 Electoral votes combined from the 3 states.

In November 2016, an investigation cited by Vox suggested that if each Stein elector had voted for Clinton instead, she could person won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and therefore, the election.

Kopko said this mightiness beryllium misleading, however. If Stein had not been connected the ballot, it is improbable that each Stein elector would person voted for Clinton. “Some voters would beryllium disillusioned and not ballot astatine all, oregon find different 3rd enactment campaigner to ballot for,” helium said.

Have different third-party candidates affected predetermination results?

In the 2000 US statesmanlike election, Green Party candidates Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke contested the predetermination connected the party’s summons and ended up winning 2.7 percent of the fashionable vote. Nader made inroads successful plaything states Florida and New Hampshire, and it is believed that this allowed the states to power from the Democrats to the Republicans.

This fed speculation that the Green Party summons ate distant the ballot stock for Democrat Al Gore to bolster a Republican George Bush win. The Green Party denied this.

Gore won much than fractional a cardinal votes and conceded lone aft a monthlong ineligible battle.

The two-party governmental strategy has made it hard for 3rd parties to marque a dent successful predetermination results.

Only 4 third-party candidates person been capable to triumph Electoral College votes since 1920. They are – Robert La Follette, who won 13 Electoral votes successful 1924; Strom Thurmond, who won 39 successful 1948; George Wallace, who won 45 successful 1968; and John Hospers, who won 1 Electoral ballot formed by a faithless elector successful 1972.