Will Beyoncé’s ‘Cowboy Carter’ Finally Win Her Album of the Year?

Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 8, Rolling Stone is breaking down 13 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night. 

This nomination year had rock-solid full-lengths from four Grammy perennials of recent vintage — Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, and Black Pumas — which doesn’t leave much wiggle room in the eight-entry field of Album of the Year. But that is enough space to nod to Chappell Roan’s meteoric rise and the hold that Brat Summer had on the collective imagination, as well as Future and Metro Boomin’s world-shaking collaboration and Tyla’s vision of Afropop.

Album of the Year – Our Predictions

Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft
Black Pumas, Chronicles of a Diamond
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Charli xcx, brat
Future & Metro Boomin, We Don’t Trust You
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department
Tyla, Tyla

Who Will Win?

Taylor Swift
Can anyone stop Taylor Swift’s momentum, especially since she announced The Tortured Poets Department at the 2024 Grammy Awards earlier this year? “Obviously, the impact of the Eras Tour is hard to ignore, and obviously The Tortured Poets Department has been huge,” says Talia Kraines, Senior Editor of Pop at Spotify. “Her whole catalog still continues to stream like crazy, and when she added the new album’s section [to her show], that gave it another boost.” TTPD being produced by Jack Antonoff, who’s currently on a three-year winning streak for Producer of the Year, Non-Classical, should help Swift’s case — as should the final leg of the Eras Tour, which runs from October to December.  

Who Should Win?

Beyoncé
Beyoncé is the winningest artist in Grammy Awards history — but somehow has never won Album of the Year. Cowboy Carter could fix that: It’s an important history lesson about Black contributions to American music, as well as an introduction to the next generation of Black country music. “Uplifting other Black female country artists, and creating important conversations that needed to happen, is so important,” says Kraines. That the album is stuffed with indelible tracks like the slick “Bodyguard” and the sweetly supportive Miley Cyrus duet “II Most Wanted” makes it a contender, too. “The two things stand side by side: the cultural piece and the excellent album,” says Kraines. 

Editor’s picks

Forecasting the Field

This has been a strong year for albums as albums, and not just as collections of songs designed to support a single or two: Both Beyoncé and Swift lived up to that ideal. They’re hardly the only ones, though. Few artists epitomize that like Chappell Roan, whose debut full-length The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess has been a bottomless gold mine of vibrant, deeply felt pop. “‘Good Luck, Babe!’ was the song that finally propelled her,” says Kraines, “but it’s been truly fascinating to watch everybody really dig into her catalog — nearly the entire album is in the Spotify Top 200.” 

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Elsewhere, Billie Eilish’s sharply drawn, yet tenderly felt Hit Me Hard and Soft, says Kraines, “was really her being a twentysomething instead of a teenager — it was incredibly relatable despite her being one of the most famous people in the world.” Future and Metro Boomin’s We Don’t Trust You was a sequel-worthy hip-hop moment; Black Pumas’ Chronicles of a Diamond was a psychedelic soul odyssey from an act that’s become an Academy darling since debuting five years ago. Charli xcx’s brat introduced her as a solo artist to a whole new audience while staying true to her future-pop ideals. “We’ve always known she had it in her,” says Kraines. And Tyla’s win last winter — she nabbed the inaugural Best African Music Performance award for her breakout single “Water” — indicates that her album might receive some Big Four love. 

The list of potential snubs is almost as impressive as the list above; it includes Zach Bryan’s finely wrought (and Bruce Springsteen-assisted) The Great American Bar Scene, Sabrina Carpenter’s frothy Short N’ Sweet, and Chris Stapleton’s ballad-heavy Higher.