Yogendra Yadav writes: How the ball turned on the Haryana field

A statutory clarification earlier I crook to these questions. I constitute this connected the presumption that the effect arsenic declared by the EC is simply a just reflection of the mode radical voted. Congress has raised superior objections to the results, presented immoderate grounds to enactment its assertion and promised more. The onus is connected the EC to clarify. For now, I person taken the authoritative results, counter-intuitive arsenic they are, astatine look worth and bracketed each different concerns astir manipulation.

Let america statesman by knowing the structural displacement Congress enjoyed astatine the opening of this election. The enactment suffered a melodramatic illness of its ballot stock successful Haryana — from astir 40 per cent — to Lok Sabha elections of 2014 (23 per cent), assembly elections the aforesaid twelvemonth (21 per cent), 2019 LS elections (29 per cent) and assembly elections (28 per cent). In LS elections of 2019, it trailed the BJP by astir 30 percent points. Haryana Congress was staring astatine the destiny of its counterparts successful UP and Bihar. This is wherever the farmers’ question and the wrestlers’ protestation changed the governmental landscape, weaning distant the ascendant farming assemblage from the BJP. Congress revival aft the Bharat Jodo Yatra made definite that the disaffected farmers turned to Congress alternatively than the INLD oregon JJP. Rahul Gandhi’s assertive transportation connected the Constitution helped bring a large chunk of Dalit voters backmost to Congress.

This was reflected successful the LS elections, arsenic the ballot stock of Congress (including AAP) made a immense leap of 19 percent points to decorativeness 1 percent constituent up of the BJP. So, contrary to post-poll commentaries, kisan, pahalwan and samvidhan did work. Else, Congress would not person been a superior contender successful these elections. Anti-incumbency against the 10-year-old authorities authorities was palpable connected the ground. The evident anticipation was that the BJP would fare overmuch worse successful the assembly elections, arsenic it had done successful 2014 and 2019. So, successful an progressively bipolar concern (the combined ballot stock of Congress and BJP roseate from 55 per cent successful 2014 to 79 per cent successful this assembly election), that would person meant a decisive decision for the BJP and a comfy bulk for Congress.

But this structural vantage was not capable to triumph elections. This was the mistake successful the kisan-jawan-pahalwan-samvidhan narrative. I was among the galore analysts who believed that this archetypal structural vantage for Congress was ample and irreversible successful the abbreviated run, capable to sorb the effect of immoderate strategical oregon tactical determination by the BJP. Although, dissimilar successful the LS elections, I refrained from making a ceremonial seats forecast for the Haryana assembly, I shared the wide content that a comfy bulk (or a question oregon adjacent a tsunami) for Congress was connected the cards.

The BJP strategists were astute capable to spot an accidental successful adversity. They could spot that the large displacement towards Congress came mostly from the Jats. And determination was an accidental to divided the Dalit votes successful presumption of the sub-quota controversy. By each accounts, they went astir executing their strategy meticulously.

The lone mode of making consciousness of this result is to spot it arsenic a effect of a bid of strategical moves by the BJP that neutralised the immense archetypal vantage enjoyed by Congress. These moves included replacement of Manohar Lal Khattar by Nayab Singh Saini and a bid of announcements meant to code the anemic points of the BJP. This strategy progressive a bold determination to contradict tickets to galore sitting MLAs and large leaders. Quietly, the BJP pressed the 35-1 (pitting 35 communities of the authorities against Jats) polarisation strategy. This was akin to the “Yadav raj” strategy utilized by the BJP successfully against the SP successful the UP assembly elections of 2022. In Haryana the BJP invoked the fearfulness of raj by 1 community, 1 district, 1 family. This was not a caller strategy, the BJP utilized it successful 2019 too. Although crushed reports bash not suggest greater polarisation this time, this is the astir plausible mentation for the BJP’s unexpected success. This was supplemented by a quiescent run among the non-Jatav SCs connected the contented of the sub-quota.

Congress, connected the different hand, either did not person a wide strategy oregon could not execute it. While Rahul assured a authorities of each “36 biradari”, the enactment could not transportation this assurance, particularly to the voters of southbound Haryana and GT Road portion populated by non-Jats. The determination to renominate each sitting MLAs showed complacency — 14 of the 28 sitting Congress MLAs mislaid the election. Also, the summons organisation carried the stamp of 1 person and reinforced the content of Jat dominance. Kumari Selja’s not-so-quiet protestation did not wounded the enactment successful her ain areas, but it accentuated the BJP’s communicative of Congress arsenic a Jat party. While determination was nary electoral summation successful making an confederation with the AAP oregon SP, determination was a grade of complacency successful addressing authoritative and unofficial “rebels”.

These strategical disparities brought the electoral lucifer down to the past over, to the polling day. This is an country wherever the BJP has an unmistakable vantage implicit the Congress, with its micro-targeting of voters, polling booth absorption and last-minute mobilisation. Congress relied connected hawa, enthusiasm and voters’ self-mobilisation. These seemingly tiny but captious factors springiness the BJP up to a 2 per cent spike successful each election, successful each state. In the past instance, that appears to person tilted this adjacent predetermination successful favour of the BJP and resulted successful what would beryllium described arsenic an unprecedented and historical verdict. As successful the T-20 finals, 1 drawback tin alteration the match.

The writer is member, Swaraj India and National Convenor of Bharat Jodo Abhiyaan