Russia Eyes Libya to Replace Syria as Africa Launchpad

The autumn of Russian state Bashar al-Assad successful Syria has disrupted the Kremlin's strategy not lone for the Mediterranean but besides for Africa, pushing it to absorption connected Libya arsenic a imaginable foothold, experts say.

Russia runs a subject larboard and an aerial basal connected the Syrian coast, designed to facilitate its operations successful the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the Sahel, Sudan and the Central African Republic.

However, this exemplary is successful jeopardy with the abrupt departure of the Syrian ruler.

Although Syria's caller leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has called Russia an "important country", saying "we bash not privation Russia to permission Syria successful the mode that immoderate wish," the reshuffling of cards successful Syria is pushing Russia to question a strategical retreat towards Libya.

In Libya, Russian mercenaries already enactment Khalifa Haftar, a tract marshal controlling the eastbound of the country, against the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) which has UN designation and is supported by Turkey.

"The extremity is notably to sphere the ongoing Russian missions successful Africa," said Jalel Harchaoui astatine the RUSI deliberation vessel successful the UK.

"It's a self-preservation reflex" for Russia which is anxious "to mitigate the deterioration of its presumption successful Syria," helium told AFP.

In May 2024, Swiss investigative consortium "All Eyes On Wagner" identified Russian activities astatine astir 10 Libyan sites, including the larboard of Tobruk, wherever subject instrumentality was delivered successful February and April of past year.

There were astir 800 Russian troops contiguous successful February 2024, and 1,800 successful May.

On December 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said determination had been a transportation of Russian radars and defence systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries.

'Notable volume'

Since Assad's autumn connected Dec. 8, "a notable measurement of Russian subject resources has been shipped to Libya from Belarus and Russia", said Harchaoui, adding determination had been unit transfers arsenic well.

Ukrainian quality claimed connected Jan. 3 that Moscow planned "to usage Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships to transport subject instrumentality and weapons" to Libya.

Beyond simply representing a indispensable replacement of "one proxy with another," the displacement is simply a quest for "continuity," said adept Emadeddin Badi connected the Atlantic Council's website, underscoring Libya's relation arsenic "a constituent of a long-standing strategy to grow Moscow's strategical foothold successful the region."

'Disrupt occidental interests'

According to Badi, "Assad offered Moscow a foothold against NATO's eastbound flank and a signifier to trial subject capabilities."

Haftar, helium said, presents a akin opportunity, "a means to disrupt occidental interests, exploit Libya's fractured politics, and widen Moscow's power into Africa."

The Tripoli authorities and Italy, Libya's erstwhile assemblage master, person expressed interest implicit Russian movements, intimately observed by the European Union and NATO.

Several sources accidental the United States has tried to transportation Haftar to contradict the Russians a imperishable installation astatine the larboard of Tobruk that they person coveted since 2023.

It seems already wide the Kremlin volition conflict to find the aforesaid level of easiness successful Libya that it had during Assad's reign.

"Syria was convenient," said Ulf Laessing, the Bamako-based caput of the Sahel programme astatine the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

"It was this achromatic container with nary Western diplomats, nary journalists. They could fundamentally bash what they wanted," helium told AFP.

"But successful Libya, it volition beryllium overmuch much complicated. It's hard to support things concealed determination and Russian beingness volition beryllium overmuch much visible," helium said.

Moscow volition besides person to contend with different powers, including Turkey, which is allied with the GNU, arsenic good arsenic Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, who are patrons of Haftar.

In Libya, torn into 2 blocs since the ouster of longtime person Moamer Kadhafi successful February 2011, "everybody's trying to enactment with some sides," said Laessing.

Over the past year, adjacent Turkey has moved person to Haftar, seeking imaginable practice connected economical projects and diplomatic exchanges.

Russia volition besides beryllium mindful to person a program B should things spell incorrect for its Libyan ally.

"We indispensable not repetition the mistake made successful Syria, betting connected a section dictator without an alternative," said Vlad Shlepchenko, subject analogous for the pro-Kremlin media Tsargrad.

Haftar, meanwhile, is improbable to privation to crook his backmost connected occidental countries whose tacit enactment helium has enjoyed.

"There are astir apt limits to what the Russians tin bash successful Libya," said Laessing.

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