Russia-Ukraine war appears frozen in place as winter approaches

WASHINGTON — 

Neither rising decease tolls nor plunging temperatures are apt to alteration the trajectory of Russia's warfare against Ukraine, according to elder U.S. officials charged with supporting Kyiv's combat against Moscow's forces.

The officials, briefing reporters Wednesday connected the information of anonymity to sermon battlefield developments, said warring implicit the past respective weeks has resulted successful lone insignificant changes to the beforehand lines, with fewer indications Russia is making immoderate adjustments.

"It's an attritional strategy," said a elder U.S. subject official. "It's benignant of the Russian mode of warfare that they proceed to propulsion wide into the problem."

That willingness to effort to overwhelm Ukrainian positions with sheer numbers has outgo Russia's military, according to the latest U.S. subject assessments.

The U.S. estimates Russian forces person suffered 600,000 casualties, killed and wounded, since Moscow archetypal launched its penetration of Ukraine successful February 2022 — a toll that U.S. officials said surpasses the fig of Russian casualties successful immoderate struggle since World War II.

September has been particularly costly, with Russia sustaining much casualties past period than successful immoderate different period of the war, officials said.

Russia's subject has besides suffered successful different ways.

Senior U.S. officials estimation Ukraine has destroyed oregon damaged much than 30 mean to ample Russian ships stationed successful the Black Sea, forcing Russia to relocate its Black Sea fleet. Ukraine is besides thought to person destroyed much than two-thirds of Russia's prewar vessel inventory.

"[It is] forcing the Russian subject to excavation into Soviet-era stockpiles and substance tanks from World War II," said a elder U.S. defence official.

And past determination are the Ukrainian drone attacks connected Russian ammunition depots, believed to person destroyed hundreds of thousands of Russian and North Korean-made rounds.

U.S. officials said the harm would apt dilatory transportation of ammunition and artillery rounds to the beforehand lines.

Still, they warned, the Kremlin appears undeterred, adjacent it means much Russian casualties.

"Russia does proceed to give important amounts of resources and … lives toward a grinding campaign, redoubling its efforts successful the east," said the elder defence official.

"Russia has besides demonstrated clip and clip again a willingness to bash immoderate it takes to effort to unit the Ukrainians to capitulate, including purposely targeting Ukrainian civilians and captious infrastructure."

For now, elder U.S. officials measure that Russian President Vladimir Putin has managed to debar calling for a wide mobilization, similar the call-up of immoderate 300,000 reservists backmost successful September 2022, acknowledgment successful portion to wage increases for Russian volunteers. But conscionable however agelong Putin tin prolong Russia's efforts without caller troops is not clear.

As for Ukraine, elder U.S. officials constituent to the country's occurrence with its domestically produced drones and adjacent its violative into Russia's Kursk portion arsenic reasons for hope.

"My appraisal is that the Ukrainians volition beryllium capable to support their presumption successful Kursk for immoderate magnitude of time, present into the future," said the elder U.S. subject official. "Several months and perchance beyond."

The authoritative said Ukraine's subject enactment appears to beryllium looking astatine the large picture.

"Certainly, they're focused connected however they get done the winter, but they're reasoning a small spot longer word astir however they acceptable conditions for occurrence adjacent year," the authoritative said.

"The Ukrainians are reasoning guardant to 2025," the U.S. authoritative added. "That includes things similar ensuring that the further brigades tin travel online arsenic they summation their recruitment, arsenic they get amended instrumentality and training, reconstituting brigades that they're cycling disconnected the beforehand enactment and truly gathering up their combat powerfulness for the future."