Trump's 'America First' agenda may lead to higher tariffs on Indian auto, textiles, pharma: Experts

With Donald Trump each acceptable to go US president, Indian exporters whitethorn look precocious customs duties for goods similar automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the caller US medication decides to prosecute the ‘America First' agenda, opined commercialized experts.

Experts besides said that Trump could besides tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and maturation for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export net travel from the US, making it susceptible to changes successful visa policies.

The US is India's largest trading partner, accounting for implicit $190 cardinal of yearly trade. Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) Founder Ajay Srivastava said that Trump whitethorn widen tariffs beyond China to see India and different countries.

Trump had earlier called India a "large tariff abuser" and successful October 2020 labelled India arsenic the 'tariff king'. These remarks suggest that Trump's 2nd word could bring tougher commercialized negotiations. He said.

"His America First docket would apt propulsion for protective measures, specified arsenic reciprocal tariffs connected Indian goods, perchance adding barriers for cardinal Indian exports similar automobiles, wines, textiles, and pharmaceuticals.

These increases could marque Indian products little competitory successful the US, impacting gross successful these sectors," Srivastava said. However, a tougher US stance connected China could make caller opportunities for Indian exporters, helium added.

The bilateral commercialized successful goods betwixt the 2 countries stood astatine $120 cardinal successful 2023-24 arsenic against $129.4 cardinal successful 2022-23.

A GTRI study had earlier stated that according to WTO's World Tariff Profiles 2023, the US besides imposes precocious duties connected items similar dairy products (188 per cent), Fruits and vegetables (132 per cent), cereals and nutrient preparations (193 per cent), oilseeds, fats and oils (164 per cent), beverages and baccy (150 per cent).

International commercialized adept Biswajit Dhar said that Trump would summation tariffs successful assorted sectors arsenic helium has to travel his telephone for MAGA (Make America Great Again). "With Trump coming to power, we are going to participate a antithetic epoch of protectionism," Dhar said adding sectors similar electronics whitethorn get a hit.

He added that arsenic earlier Trump has walked retired of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), determination could beryllium acheronian clouds connected IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity).
The 14-nation bloc was launched successful Tokyo by the US and different Indo-Pacific countries connected May 23, 2022.

"Let america spot what helium does with IPEF," Dhar cautioned and added that thing is expected to determination successful the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) DG Ajay Sahai said that "we could expect Mr Trump to propulsion for much balanced trade. But commercialized disputes mightiness originate astir tariffs".

Going by the expanding inclination of protectionism, Sahai said, the aforesaid would proceed with tighter migration rules. Agneshwar Sen, Partner-Tax and Economic Policy (International Trade), EY India said it whitethorn beryllium expected that the US volition usage precocious tariffs strategically to onshore manufacturing and alteration existent proviso chains.

India could look higher tariffs connected exports similar textiles, chemicals, pharma and auto/ engineering products, Sen said. "India would person to either question alternate markets (which volition beryllium difficult) oregon retaliate with its ain tariffs connected US exports. Alternately, we indispensable beryllium acceptable for a commercialized woody that is charismatic to the US portion not conscionable protecting our existent interests but creating newer ones," helium added.

Further Srivastava said that Trump has expressed concerns astir outsourcing, and portion immoderate statements whitethorn beryllium run rhetoric, India should hole for imaginable measures affecting IT exports.

H-1B visa policies are important for the question of skilled professionals, particularly from India's IT sector. "Trump's stricter migration stance could pb to changes successful visa rules, impacting Indian IT professionals and raising costs for Indian IT companies," the GTRI Founder said.

However, helium added that Trump is expected to easiness labour and biology standards, which could marque it easier for Indian exports to participate the US market. "Trump would apt propulsion India to align intimately with US geopolitical aims, perchance expanding India's relation arsenic an alternate supplier successful sectors similar electronics and pharmaceuticals but perchance limiting India's overseas argumentation flexibility," helium said.

Likewise, India's expanding request for precocious technology, energy, and superior goods from the US opens avenues for expanding bilateral trade. Between FY'2020 and FY'2024, India's merchandise exports to America roseate by 46 per cent from $53.1 cardinal to $77.5 billion.

Imports from the US besides grew to $42.2 cardinal past fiscal from $35.8 cardinal successful 2019-20. On the different hand, commercialized successful services betwixt the 2 nations expanded from $54.1 cardinal successful 2018 to an estimated $70.5 cardinal successful 2024, a 30.3 rise.

India is besides a cardinal destination for American businesses specified arsenic professional, scientific, and method services, manufacturing, and IT. Washington is the 3rd largest investor. India received $66.7 cardinal betwixt April 2000 and June 2024.

India buys subject instrumentality and Boeings worthy billions of dollars from the US and conducts its implicit 90 per cent planetary commercialized successful US Dollars.

"The US firms similar Google, Facebook stitchery Terabytes of information each time and gain billions of advertizing dollars each twelvemonth from India. Amazon which had to retreat from China, is the biggest online retailer successful India. The US earns dollars from India from assorted engagements and not conscionable trade," Srivastava said.