What factors will influence Sensex and Nifty on Monday?

Analysts said that markets are apt to stay choppy connected Monday.

“Markets whitethorn stay anemic successful short-term arsenic the rupee remains anemic and besides connected relationship of the fearfulness that definite FIIs would commencement selling their semipermanent holdings which volition beryllium taxed higher connected par with home investors from FY2026,” said G Chokkalingam, Founder & Head of Research, Equinomics.

The caller announcement by US President Donald Trump to enforce tariffs connected goods imported from China, Mexico and Canada volition measurement connected capitalist sentiments.

“If this (tariff hikes) escalates into a caller commercialized war, it could wounded planetary hazard appetite, starring to FII outflows from emerging markets, including India. If the tariffs are sector-specific, their interaction mightiness beryllium contained,” said Narinder Wadhwa, Managing Director & CEO of SKI Capital.

Indian exporters whitethorn besides spot immoderate antagonistic impact, helium said.

The affirmative for the marketplace connected Monday volition beryllium the depletion stimulus, that is, simplification successful idiosyncratic income taxation rates, announced successful the Union Budget 2025-26.

On the idiosyncratic income taxation front, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, successful the Union Budget 2025-26, rationalised taxation slabs by expanding the taxation exemption bounds up to Rs 12 lakh. To trim the multiplicity of rates and compliance burden, the Budget besides projected to bring down definite taxation deduction astatine root (TDS).

“Domestic sentiment whitethorn amended arsenic the fund supports demand-driven growth,” said Wadhwa.

What was the inclination successful markets connected Saturday?

Domestic benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended level connected Saturday successful a highly volatile peculiar trading league for the Union Budget amid a lower-than-expected summation successful superior expenditure and simplification successful idiosyncratic income taxation rates announced to springiness a fillip to the slowing depletion successful the country.

The 30-share BSE Sensex marginally gained 0.01 per cent, oregon 5.39 points, to settee astatine 77,505.96 and the broader Nifty 50 mislaid 0.11 per cent, oregon 26.25 points to decorativeness astatine 23,482.15 connected Saturday.

In the Budget 2025-26 announced connected February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a superior expenditure of astir Rs 11.21 lakh crore for FY 2025-26, a humble 10 per cent summation compared to a revised estimation of Rs 10.18 lakh crore successful FY 2024-25.

“Instead of relying chiefly connected expanding concern capableness and accelerating infrastructure projects, policymakers are present channelling resources toward stimulating user spending and home demand,” HDFC Securities said successful a report.

This translation reflects a increasing designation that sustainable economical maturation requires a robust user basal on with infrastructure improvements, it said.

While the benchmark indices witnessed volatility, shares of fast-moving user goods (FMCG), user durables and car companies roseate connected Saturday.

Companies that surged included Radico Khaitan (8.97 per cent), Godrej Consumer Products (5.69 per cent), ITC Hotels (5 per cent), HUL (1.47 per cent), Blue Star (11.83 per cent) and Crompton (6.95 per cent).

How are overseas investors going to respond connected Monday?

The Finance Bill 2025 has projected to hike the semipermanent superior gains (LTCG) taxation connected income of overseas organization investors (FIIs) from 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent, effectual April 1, 2026.

Foreign investors, who were mostly absent connected Saturday, are apt to intensify selling connected Monday, analysts believe.

“Around Rs 2,000 crore worthy of Indian equities were sold by FIIs connected Saturday. Perhaps much selling whitethorn hap connected Monday owed to the hike successful agelong word superior summation taxation for FIIs,” said Chokkalingam of Equinomics.

Geojit Financial Services’s Chief Investment Strategist V K Vijayakumar, however, feels that the marginal summation successful LTCG taxation connected FIIs is insignificant.

In January 2025, overseas investors were sustained sellers successful India. They sold connected each trading days but one. Total FII selling was Rs 78,027 crore successful January arsenic per the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data.