AAP’s shrinking margins offer BJP its silver lining in Delhi

But successful a bulk of these 61 retained seats, the AAP saw its winning margins and ballot shares drop. While its ballot stock fell successful 32 seats, its borderline dropped successful 42 seats. In astir each of these seats, the BJP recorded an summation successful its ballot share.

At 8 seats, North West Delhi territory had the highest attraction of seats wherever the AAP’s ballot stock fell, followed by six each successful South and West Delhi districts.

In 14 seats, the AAP’s ballot stock fell by much than 5-percentage points – the biggest diminution coming successful North West Delhi’s Kirari constituency, astatine 11.89-percentage points.

[MAP: Change successful AAP’s ballot share]

Change successful AAP’s ballot stock successful Delhi

Across the 32 seats wherever the AAP’s ballot stock fell betwixt 2015 and 2020, the BJP saw its ballot stock summation successful 29 seats and the Congress successful 5 seats. In 10 of these seats, the BJP’s ballot stock roseate by much than 10-percentage points, including 3 seats each successful North West and South Delhi districts; and by much than 5-percentage points successful 23 seats, including 8 successful North West Delhi.

The BJP recorded its highest increases successful ballot shares successful Patparganj (13.95-percentage points), Kirari (13.35), Vikaspuri (12.52), Tughlakabad (12.07), and Adarsh Nagar (12.02). Incidentally, the AAP moved its erstwhile lawman CM Manish Sisodia from Patparganj spot to Jangpura this time.

Overall, from 2015 to 2020, the BJP saw its ballot stock summation successful 62 seats, including 18 seats by much than 10-percentage points. In contrast, the Congress saw its ballot stock diminution successful 60 seats betwixt the 2 Assembly elections.

[MAP: Change successful BJP’s ballot share]

Change successful BJP’s ballot stock successful Delhi

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP was capable to summation its ballot stock successful each 67 Assembly segments that it had contested successful the 2020 Assembly elections en way to winning each 7 of Delhi’s parliamentary seats for a 3rd consecutive time. In 54 Assembly segments, the BJP’s ballot stock roseate by much than 10-percentage points implicit the 2020 Assembly elections.

In presumption of winning margins, too, the AAP recorded declines successful 42 seats from 2015 to 2020. The party’s mean borderline fell from astir 28,700 votes to conscionable implicit 22,000 votes. In each but 1 spot wherever the AAP’s borderline fell, the BJP recorded an summation successful its ballot share.

In 24 seats, the AAP’s borderline fell by much than 10,000 votes. There were 7 specified seats successful North West Delhi district, and 5 each successful West and South Delhi districts. In six seats – Bijwasan, Adarsh Nagar, Kasturba Nagar, Patparganj, Shalimar Bagh and Chhatarpur – the AAP’s diminution was capable to bring the borderline beneath 5,000 votes. The biggest driblet successful the borderline came successful Kirari, wherever the AAP went from winning by implicit 45,000 votes successful 2015 to conscionable implicit 5,650 votes successful 2020.

The AAP volition gully comfortableness from the information that its margins accrued successful 19 seats, including by much than 10,000 votes successful 4 seats. The party’s ballot stock besides roseate successful 29 seats, including successful 7 by much than 5-percentage points.

What the parties are expecting

According to Congress sources, the enactment is hoping its ballot stock volition emergence successful astir 28 of the capital’s 70 Assembly seats. Its run concentrated connected the concerns of SC, ST, OBC and number voters successful summation to “soft Hindutva” arsenic good arsenic the Delhi Nyay Yatra,

The Congress was “very confident”, according to insiders, of winning seats specified arsenic New Delhi, Kalkaji, Seemapuri, Samaypur Badli, Patparganj and Kasturba Nagar. However, betwixt 2015 and 2020, the enactment saw its ballot stock diminution successful each of these seats barring Kasturba Nagar, wherever its ballot stock roseate by 10-percentage points.

Seats wherever the Congress sources said the enactment was expecting “a bully ballot share” were Matia Mahal, Okhla, Jangpura, Babarpur, Mustafabad, Seelampur, Nangloi Jat, Sultanpur Majra and Bawana. But the party’s ballot stock dipped successful each these seats from 2015 to 2019, including by arsenic overmuch arsenic 28.8% successful Mustafabad and 22.9% successful Matia Mahal.

Several of these seats person ample Muslim populations.

While the Congress is facing the AAP’s Sisodia successful Jangpura, successful New Delhi, the campaigner database includes erstwhile AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal.

Apart from these, Congress sources said, they were “mostly confident” of claiming a “satisfactory ballot share” successful seats specified arsenic Ballimaran, Chandni Chowk, Sadar Bazar, Trilokpuri, Kondli, Bijwasan, Mangolpuri, Uttam Nagar, Wazirpur, Adarsh Nagar and Sangam Vihar. From 2015 to 2020, the party’s ballot stock fell successful 8 of these seats and remained unchangeable successful two.

“A bulk of the seats that the Congress is assured of being up connected are those wherever nary developmental projects person been delivered by the AAP government, making its sitting MLAs immensely unpopular. It is simply a triangular combat successful (28 specified seats),” a elder Congress person said.

On the different hand, BJP insiders said the enactment was astir assured connected Assembly seats falling nether Lok Sabha segments wherever it had claimed a important winning borderline implicit INDIA bloc candidates successful the 2024 wide elections.

A bulk of these, a elder BJP person said, fell nether the North West Delhi Parliamentary segment, wherever its winning borderline was the highest astatine implicit 19%, followed by West and South Delhi, successful summation to Chandni Chowk. In each but 5 of the 40 Assembly segments that autumn wrong these Lok Sabha seats, the BJP’s ballot stock accrued by much than 10-percentage points betwixt 2020 and 2024.

“The logic is simple: Voters from these Assembly seats had voted for the BJP connected the ground of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s look during the Lok Sabha elections, which were conducted conscionable a fewer months ago. (Modi) remains the party’s main look for the Delhi Assembly elections alongside the aforesaid momentum,” the person said. “Coupled with the projection of caller schemes arsenic the PM’s ain guarantees arsenic good arsenic the assurance that ongoing payment schemes volition proceed successful Delhi, we are much than assured that the aforesaid voters who chose the BJP a fewer months agone volition take it again,” the person added.

Last year, successful the North West Delhi Lok Sabha seat, for instance, the BJP had secured much than 60% of the ballot stock successful 3 of its 10 Assembly segments, and much than 50% ballot stock successful 9 segments. In the West Delhi Lok Sabha seats, the BJP got much than 50% of the ballot stock successful 8 of its 10 Assembly segments. In Chandni Chowk, the party’s ballot stock exceeded 60% successful 5 segments. In the South Delhi parliamentary seat, its ballot stock was supra 50% successful six segments.

“We are much than assured that the BJP volition assertion the highest ballot share, oregon grounds an summation successful it compared to the 2020 Assembly elections, connected implicit 45 seats successful the city,” a enactment root said.

This, adjacent arsenic AAP nationalist convener Arvind Kejriwal, successful a station connected X, stated, “According to my estimate, the AAP is going to get 55 seats but if women enactment successful a batch of effort – everyone should spell retired to ballot and person the men successful their location to ballot for Aam Aadmi Party – past it tin get much than 60 seats.”

According to AAP sources, the party’s thrust had been connected “significant seats” specified arsenic New Delhi, Jangpura, Kalkaji and Greater Kailash among others. “In summation to the Kejriwal origin – his wide popularity – we person concentrated connected seats wherever we sensed anti-incumbency of our sitting MLAs who were yet replaced by much fashionable individuals,” an AAP insider said.