Carlos Alcaraz’s new service motion and a flatter and quicker forehand will challenge Novak Djokovic

But it volition beryllium the 21-year-old Spaniard, already an proprietor of 4 Major titles seeking to go lone the sixth antheral successful the Open Era to implicit the vocation Grand Slam successful Melbourne, who comes into this lucifer arsenic the favourite.

Djokovic has been imperfect but dependable truthful far, but dealing with the mightiness of Alcaraz from the baseline, coupled with the Spaniard’s latest improvements, whitethorn beryllium to beryllium an altogether different, and much daunting challenge.

Serve and instrumentality prowess

After suffering a straight-sets beatdown astatine the Wimbledon last past year, Djokovic had been taken aback by Alcaraz’s serving performance.

He whitethorn not beryllium keen to find retired that is the precise country Alcaraz spent astir of the disconnected play improving. He has introduced a caller work motion, and adjacent added an other 5g of pb to his racquet. Results person been determination to see.

Alcaraz has been breached lone thrice successful 4 matches. He has won 81% of the points down his archetypal service (the associated fourth-highest for players that made it to the 2nd week). He is importantly outperforming his circuit mean numbers — connected some archetypal and 2nd service — passim 2024. In his second-round demolition of Yoshito Nishioka, helium deed 14 aces, his highest ever successful a azygous match.

The Spaniard’s 2nd astir awesome country has been his instrumentality — tennis’s flashy highlight-reel shotmaker has refocused his vigor connected the controllables.

His 23 breaks of service are the second-best successful the men’s gully successful Melbourne, and helium has won 41% of the points connected his opponents’ archetypal serve, by acold the champion astatine the Australian Open this year.

Time for Murray to gain his stripes

Alcaraz’s glaring weakness though, is his inclination to let his level to autumn seemingly astatine random. Despite however good helium has been serving, helium has deed 15 treble faults and lone made 62% of his archetypal serves, some being plentifulness of bully quality for an all-time large returner similar Djokovic.

But for the Serb, the cardinal country whitethorn beryllium baseline strategy, which is wherever the input from his rival-turned-coach Andy Murray, whitethorn travel in.

The sheer powerfulness that Alcaraz is capable to produce, adjacent from dead, neutral balls, allows him to dictate proceedings from the baseline and bring his crafty driblet shots and nett play into focus. It has felt adjacent much lethal acknowledgment to a subtle alteration helium has made to accommodate his clay-friendly crippled to the quicker hard courts successful Melbourne.

According to tourney information pulled retired by ESPN, Alcaraz is hitting his forehand somewhat flatter and quicker, sacrificing 4% mean topspin for astir an other 3kmph velocity connected that shot, a marginal tweak that’s coming up with large gains. Per ATP data, helium has won 58% of his baseline points (206/358) and deed 104 winners, making him the tournament-leader successful both.

Much of Djokovic’s imaginable occurrence against him volition beryllium connected however helium disrupts his bushed from the baseline. It’s the choices, not possibilities, for the subordinate with the widest arsenal successful men’s tennis history. He volition person to marque the close prime successful either utilizing slices and driblet shots to bring Alcaraz to the forecourt, oregon spraying him wide with precise, angled groundstrokes, oregon finishing points aboriginal astatine the net.

Endless speculation has raged into however Djokovic and Murray person turned rivalry into concern astatine this tournament, but it is present that the three-time Major winner’s occupation truly starts — successful advising Djokovic connected the minutae of dealing with Alcaraz from the backmost of the court.