DeepSeek’s Sputnik moment: Five ways in which US-China AI race plays out for India

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As Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Paris to co-chair the AI acme convened aboriginal adjacent period by French President Emmanuel Macron, and whitethorn besides spell to Washington — if plans to conscionable President Donald Trump enactment retired — the Indian constitution has to get its sums close successful assessing the implications of the AI contention betwixt US and China, shaken up by the merchandise of Chinese AI adjunct DeepSeek R1 implicit the weekend.

Five of them basal out.

One is the strategical salience of the moment. Historical comparisons are odious, but successful presumption of the sheer daze it produced,  DeepSeek reminds america of the Soviet Union’s motorboat of Sputnik, the Earth’s archetypal artificial outer successful October 1957. The stunning objection of Soviet Russia’s capabilities successful frontier exertion acceptable disconnected panic wrong the smug American constitution that was truthful assured of its dominance successful subject and technology. It besides spurred Washington into a monolithic abstraction programme ofits own, including the landing of the archetypal quality connected the Moon.

Monday’s bloodbath connected Wall Street of AI stocks dramatises the astonishment that shattered Silicon Valley’s Second is the intensification of the geopolitical rivalry betwixt the US and China. If Sputnik ratcheted up the Cold War that had begun a decennary earlier betwixt America and the Soviet Union, DeepSeek heralds an escalation of the geopolitical rivalry betwixt the US and China that has been unfolding for astir a decade.  Much similar the Sputnik successful the 1950s, DeepSeek brings a caller technological frontier into the large powerfulness competition.

But the Sputnik infinitesimal did not archer america however the tech contention would play retired successful consequent decades. Moscow offered vigorous contention to Washington during the Cold War, but could not prolong its technological parity aft the illness of the Soviet Union. China is simply a antithetic benignant of power, with a ample GDP and monolithic investments successful frontier technologies. Yet determination is nary telling however its rivalry with America volition unfold successful the coming years. For now, though, it is tenable to presume that the US and China are mode up of different large powers and poised to marque the AI contention a bipolar one.

Third, DeepSeek is simply a reminder that wealth buys galore things, but it is not everything; surely not emotion oregon the capableness for innovation. If the US is seen arsenic pouring billions of dollars into gathering much computing powerfulness and amended AI models, DeepSeek has shown it is imaginable to bash much with less.

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That should springiness anticipation for India and different mediate powers similar France. The spread betwixt the US and China is overmuch little than that betwixt the 2 of them and the rest.  While the mediate powers can’t support gait with the US and China, they could bash capable to enactment successful the AI  game.

Both India and France (Europe)  speech astir “Sovereign AI”. They volition request strategies that volition emphasise some practice with the US and autarkic improvement of AI. Although the AI satellite mightiness ne'er beryllium genuinely multipolar, determination would beryllium sizeable country for different players susceptible of research, development, and innovation.

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Fourth, that country would beryllium overmuch larger if the US chooses the concern exemplary with allies to vie with China, alternatively of going it alone.  The Biden Administration was unfastened to concern with India, but concerns astir leakage of exertion from India to Russia had enactment a dampener connected the benignant of entree the US is consenting to connection India connected AI chips. For Delhi, the clip is present to determine connected however overmuch value it is consenting to springiness Russia successful advancing its interests with the US connected the AI game.

Finally, Sputnik is an important reminder that large powers volition besides embark connected practice successful precocious technologies. Although Sputnik’s motorboat successful 1957 acceptable disconnected an arms race, outer abstraction yet provided a venue to cooperate and show their shared committedness to humanity’s technological advancement and planetary peace. The detente years (the 1970s) saw Moscow and Washington statesman practice successful outer abstraction that endures to the day.

There are galore successful the US and China who deliberation the 2 sides should cooperate connected AI for the payment of the world, overmuch successful the mode America and Russia did successful outer space. It is so possible: AI practice could beryllium connected the array erstwhile Washington and Beijing statesman a substantive engagement. The Biden years person seen the US and China commencement a dialog connected AI to forestall its misuse and imaginable destabilisaton of atomic deterrence successful the AI age.

As the subject applications of AI statesman to proliferate, it is not hard to ideate US-China practice successful the instauration of a acceptable of rules to power the dispersed of AI, overmuch successful the mode that the US and Russia developed a atomic power authorities successful the 1960s and 1970s.

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India recovered itself connected the incorrect broadside of these atomic lines, acknowledgment to Delhi’s ideological disorder connected atomic issues, argumentation incoherence, and geopolitical sentimentalism. It took astir 4 decades to undo that atomic blunder.  Hopefully, Delhi is smarter contiguous and tin specify its strategical interests successful the AI domain intelligibly and guarantee that India volition beryllium portion of shaping the planetary governance of AI alternatively than a specified taxable of it.

(The writer is Contributing Editor connected planetary affairs for The Indian Express)

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