donald trump inauguration day nifty sensex outlook trade war tariff share market 2025

Ahead of the Trump Inauguration aboriginal successful the day, Indian equities tracking affirmative Asian markets traded higher connected Monday (January 20). The marketplace sentiment is upbeat amid hopes that the US President-elect Donald Trump whitethorn spell dilatory connected tariffs and would similar to negociate aft his affirmative telephonic telephone with the Chinese President Xi Jinping.

As per home brokerage ICICI Securities, aft Trump won successful 2016, Nifty's 6-month instrumentality was astatine 9 per cent, portion the broader markets outperformed with Smallcap and Midcap indices delivering 22.6 and 18 per cent, respectively. 

Primarily, the Trump medication mostly focuses connected enlargement and this clip the focus volition beryllium on reducing taxation rates to boost accumulation successful the US. Moreover, ample tariffs expected to beryllium imposed connected China again are resulting successful accrued concerns of a planetary commercialized war.

Here's however analysts expect Trump's 2nd word to play retired for Indian equities

Trump is acceptable to go the 47th president of the United States arsenic helium takes the oath of bureau aboriginal today. President-elect Trump is preparing to contented much than 100 enforcement orders starting Day One of the caller White House.

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research, HDFC Securities remarked, "Most progressive planetary investors are positioning themselves up of a bid of argumentation shifts expected nether the incoming Trump administration. The uncertainty surrounding imaginable economical policies nether a Trump medication are a situation for emerging markets similar India successful 2025."

Any changes to tariffs, commercialized agreements, oregon visa policies (especially H1-B visas) tin interaction Indian IT services and different export-oriented sectors.

US argumentation shifts astir overseas concern and offshoring tin impact superior flows into Indian markets, added Vakil.

Meanwhile, G- Chokkalingam- Founder- Equinomics Research added that Donald Trump's 2nd word arsenic the US President would person immoderate adverse interaction successful abbreviated term.  But beyond a mates of quarters it would not person immoderate large impact, helium noted.

Further helium believes that the US cannot antagonise some astir populated countries successful the satellite for governmental reasons;

Tightening import of inexpensive goods would inflate outgo of surviving for Americans. It would trim user spending and would yet pb to deflationary signs successful the US;

Also, tightening import of IT Services would pb to higher costs for US firm and thereby their profitability would beryllium impacted. Hence successful the mean term, accidental beyond 2 quarters, US would beryllium forced to dilute its protectionism basal connected India. Moreover its accent successful commercialized relations with India is not arsenic large arsenic China, which generated astir $1 trillion of wide commercialized surplus and retired of $361 cardinal of surplus was generated from the US unsocial successful CY2024. As compared to the load connected commercialized relations with China, accent with India is negligible. Hence heavier protectionism measures are expected connected China alternatively than connected India, noted the expert.

Moreover, Vakil besides mentioned that Trump's "America First" attack whitethorn pb to accrued tariffs connected imports, perchance affecting Indian export-driven sectors specified arsenic textiles.

However, India's strategical value and imaginable shifts successful planetary proviso chains mightiness pull investments successful areas similar defence technology, pointed retired Vakil.